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Contraction in IL Economy Continues; But There's Good News
The economy in Illinois continues to contract, but there are signs that things are getting better.

The monthly Flash Index published by the University of Illinois, which is based largely on state tax collections, began this month with a reading of 94. That's a decline of 1.3 points from April. Numbers below 100 reflect economic contraction. The latest index reading is at its lowest point since 1992, when it was 92.

Index author and U of I economist Fred Giertz projects the current recession will be as deep - or deeper than - the 1992 recession, but probably not as bad as the 1983 recession. "I think it's very likely the index will fall below the 1990's level," Giertz said. "But, with a little luck, we'll stay above the 1980's levels. So, again, a year ago we were hoping to avoid a recession or have a mild recession. Now we're hoping the recession isn't not too much worse than the last two, not as bad as the 1980 one."

The Flash Index reached a low of 86.2 during the 1983 recession.

Giertz says financial markets are stabilizing, the stock market is picking up and consumer spending is rebounding - all signs that the economy is picking up. But, he also says it'll be three to six months before those gains materialize and are picked up by the index.
05 14 09 by Newsroom
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