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Illinois' Economy Growing, Albeit Slowly
Illinois' economy continues to slow, but continues to grow.

The University of Illinois Flash Index, which measures the rate of the state’s economic growth, is 102.3 for June. Anything over 100 represents growth, but the rate of growth is down from last month’s index of 102.8, and 106.6 at this time one year ago.

U. of I. economist Fred Giertz says the slowdown reflects the national economy, though there are some things keeping Illinois afloat: Caterpillar is doing well, crop producers are getting good prices, and Illinois has not been hit as hard as some other states with foreclosures on sub-prime residential mortgages.

The question, Giertz says, is whether this slowdown will result in a recession, which economists normally define as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The first quarter of contraction hasn’t yet occurred. Giertz says the experts are divided 50-50 on whether a recession is coming, or whether the slowdown will stop short of a recession.

The Flash Index has not been below 100 for more than four years. However, this month’s index shows the slowest rate of economic growth since September 2004.

The Flash Index is published on the first business day of each month. It has been compiled every month since 1995.
06 02 08 by Newsroom
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