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| Some Congressional Seats Are in Trouble, Group Says |
All 19 of Illinois' congressional districts are up for election in November, but a new analysis shows four have a chance of switching parties.
The most likely Democratic goner is U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete), in her first term, being opposed by Republican Adam Kinzinger of Manteno. The district, which runs from Joliet to Bloomington, is a swing district, says Brian Gaines, political science professor at the University of Illinois Institute for Government and Public Affairs. He says if Halvorson loses, it’ll be because she ran a poor campaign.
Seat-by-seat analysis such as those done by the Cook Political Report (http://cookpolitical.com/), Real Clear Politics (www.realclearpolitics.com) and Nate Silver (www.fivethirtyeight.com) estimate the chance of a Republican pickup in this district at 88 percent.
Also in trouble, though less so, is U.S. Rep. Bill Foster (D-Geneva). His opponent is State Sen. Randall M. Hultgren (R-Winfield). This is also a swing district. Gaines says Foster is hurt by his "cerebral" personality; he's not the smiling glad-hander who "lights up a room" the way Hultgren can. Foster's chance of losing: 63 percent.
A Republican wave has an outside shot at taking down U.S. Rep. Phil Hare (D-Rock Island). Projections show Republicans picking up 40 to 55 seats; Hare would be seat No. 55, if it goes that far, Gaines says, because this has been a Democratic district for decades. The Republican candidate is Bobby Schilling of Colona. Hare's chance of losing: 26 percent.
Democrats are ripe for a pickup, though, in the Waukegan-area district being vacated by U.S. Rep. Mark S. Kirk (R-Highland Park). Gaines says this is a Democratic district in which Kirk defied gravity for five elections because voters liked him personally. It is the only House district in the country Represented by a Republican that was won by both Barack Obama and John Kerry. The candidates are Democrat Dan Seals of Wilmette and Republican Robert Dold of Kenilworth. Chance of a Democratic pickup: 53 percent.
(Illinois Radio Network) |
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| 09 14 10 by Newsroom |
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