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Expert: Polls Are One Big Guessing Game
How accurate are public opinion polls as the presidential election draws near?

Michael Cheney, senior fellow at the Institute for Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, says a lot of the polls out there are doing a lot of guessing, and he's not satisfied with their accuracy. He says with so much polling being done these days, especially in "battleground" states and states with close U.S. Senate races (neither of which applies to Illinois), pollsters are using smaller sample sizes than polling experts would like, because actually contacting voters costs money.

The composition of the sample is also problematic. Cheney says when pollsters don't get the sample they want, they have to work with what they have and make a variety of adjustments that might not be correct.

Cheney is one of a number of polling experts who analyze the body of polling, make adjustments based on a pollster's record and methodology, and come up with aggregate numbers. He sees Barack Obama winning the election for president with 353 electoral votes.

Other polling aggregators are www.RealClearPolitics.com, which envisions Obama getting 364 electoral votes, and www.FiveThirtyEight.com, which puts the Obama total at 344. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win the election. Neither Cheney nor these sites are pollsters themselves; their conclusions are based on published polls.

(Source: Illinois Radio Network)
10 19 08 by Newsroom
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