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|Four Congressional Races Getting Close, Including 17th District
|(IRN) -- The four Illinois congressional races that the pollsters and number-crunches see as possible turnovers are tightening.
The most likely Republican pickup is the seat now held by U.S. Rep. Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete), whose chance of losing is down slightly from a month ago, but still likely, says University of Illinois political science professor Brian Gaines. "Her campaign seems to be in disarray," he said. "It's a hard district for a Democrat to hold, and I don't think she's done the right things to secure her personal popularity of a kind that can insulate her from what is basically a district that leans to the other party." Halvorson is running against Republican Adam Kinzinger, whose chance of winning has dropped from 88 percent last month to 82 percent now, according to www.fivethirtyeight.com. This is the 16th most likely Democratic seat in the nation to flip to Republican.
Republican Bobby Schilling has gained on U.S. Rep. Phil Hare (D-Rock Island) in Western Illinois, though the race still leans in Hare's favor: Schilling had a 25 percent chance last month; now it's 43 percent. Gaines says a Hare TV ad in which he angrily denounces his opponent's position on free trade is unlikely to appeal beyond the Democratic base.
U.S. Rep. Bill Foster (D-Geneva) is coming back from the near-dead. A month ago, Republican State Sen. Randall M. Hultgren (R-Winfield) had a 63 percent chance of winning; this has been reduced to a 50-50 tossup.
In the 10th District, now held by U.S. Rep Mark S. Kirk ( R-Highland Park ), who is running for U.S. Senate, Democrat Dan Seals had a slight advantage over Republican Robert Dold a month ago, but this is now viewed as a tossup. This is a Democratic district (Cook Political Report partisan voting index: D+4) and the fourth-most likely Democratic pickup in the nation, but Gaines says neither Seals nor Dold are great campaigners, and this race will come down to who can get their voters out on Election Day.
(Illinois Radio Network)
|10 05 10 by Newsroom
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