Illinois has already shattered its tornado record for the year, with more than 207 confirmed tornadoes as of late August — smashing the state’s previous record of 142, set in 2024.
Dr. Trent Ford, the Illinois State Climatologist, joined Galesburg’s Morning News to break down what’s behind one of the most active severe weather years the state has seen in decades, along with what residents should expect heading into fall and winter.
Listen to the full interview below.
Illinois’ 2026 weather: what to know
- Illinois has recorded more than 207 tornadoes this year, breaking the previous record of 142 set in 2024
- Galesburg has had its fourth wettest August on record, and its wettest summer since 1993
- A strong El Niño is expected to bring a milder-than-average winter to the region
- Illinois has more tornadoes this year than the next two highest states, Indiana and Iowa, combined
Why so many tornadoes
Ford said this year’s tornado numbers represent a statistical anomaly rather than part of a long-term trend, even though Illinois has always ranked among the country’s most tornado-dense states on a per-square-mile basis. He said the state has seen repeated rounds of severe weather since April, driven by consistent humidity flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico and a jet stream that stayed further south than usual.
“We have more tornadoes than the next two highest states combined, which are Indiana and Iowa,” Ford said.
A historically wet summer
Galesburg has recorded 9.85 inches of rain in August alone, making it the fourth wettest August on record and part of the wettest summer the city has seen since 1993, according to Ford. The rain has helped correct a significant drought deficit left over from a dry 2025, restoring the water table in Peoria and keeping the Mississippi River navigable through the fall — though Ford said the excess moisture has also caused nitrogen loss in corn crops, forcing farmers to reapply expensive fertilizer.
What’s ahead for winter
Looking further ahead, Ford said a strong El Niño pattern — potentially nearing the strength of the 2015-16 event, among the strongest in decades — is expected to bring milder, above-average temperatures to the region between December and February. He cautioned that doesn’t rule out snow, particularly in January and February, and said strong El Niño winters like this one only occur roughly every 10 to 15 years.
