All of Illinois and much of the Midwest is preparing for the first severe storms of the season tonight.

Mike Albano, a meterologist with the National Weather Service Central Illinois office in Lincoln, joined WGIL's Tyler Gumm and Jay Redfern on Galesburg's Morning News to provide a forecast of the storms.

Imminent Severe Weather Threat:

• Central Illinois and much of the Midwest are bracing for the first severe storms of the season.
• The storms are expected to develop in central Iowa and Missouri early in the afternoon and move eastward.

Timing and Location of Impact:

• The Galesburg and Peoria areas are specifically at risk between 8 and 10 p.m. on Friday, March 14.

Severe Weather Hazards:

• Damaging Straight-Line Winds: Potential for winds in excess of 80 mph.
• Significant Tornadoes: Possible, particularly south of the Gailsburg area. A significant tornado is defined as EF2 or greater.
• Large Hail: Expected, with sizes ranging from 1 to 2 inches.

Characteristics of the Storms:

• Fast-Moving: The storms will be characterized by a robust wind field, with high winds even a short distance above the ground (90-100 mph at 500-1000 feet). This momentum can be transported downward.
• Not a Classic "Derecho": While strong winds are expected, the lack of significant atmospheric instability means this event is unlikely to be a widespread derecho like those seen in the summer.
• Instead, localized "pockets" of damaging winds are more probable.

Confidence and Uncertainty:

• Weather models have shown "stunning consistency" over the past several days, leading to high confidence that damaging thunderstorms will occur.
• The main uncertainty remains the coverage of the severe weather – whether it will be isolated pockets or a more widespread impact from the Quad Cities to St. Louis.

Expected Impacts:

• Tree damage is expected.
• There is a concern for potential structural damage due to the strong winds and possibility of tornadoes.

Watch and Warning Information:

• The NWS in Lincoln will be coordinating with the Storm Prediction Center to issue severe weather watches.
• A watch could potentially be issued as early as 3-5 p.m. on Friday, March 14, approximately 3-4 hours before the expected arrival of the storms.

Recommendations:

• Monitor local news, including WGIL, and weather reports for the latest updates and potential watch/warning issuances.
• Review and implement severe weather safety plans, including identifying a safe place to shelter (e.g., a basement or interior room).
• Secure any loose outdoor items that could be damaged or become projectiles in strong winds or hail.